February 2026 Reporting Season & Portfolio Update

As reporting season has drawn to a close, I was hoping to write a nice summary. However, there are two other issues to hand that also need some attention. Credit markets and the new war in Iran. I will briefly touch on both issues.

Andrew Mitchell from Ophir Asset Management has said it best:

“Navigating markets in 2026 hasn’t been easy, with escalation in the Middle East adding a fresh layer of uncertainty. With investors still debating AI disruption and stretched valuations, geopolitics has thrown another spanner in the works. History shows that when a major conflict breaks out, the S&P 500 typically sells off first as markets price in worst-case scenarios. But here’s the important point: Unless global demand, energy supply, or corporate earnings are materially hit, markets have tended to rebound relatively quickly. In the short term, capital rotates toward perceived safe havens and direct beneficiaries: Gold, Aerospace & Defence, Energy producers, Defensives (staples, healthcare, utilities), Government bonds The swing factor is oil. If the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted, roughly 20% of global oil and gas supply could be impacted. That’s when higher energy prices begin squeezing consumers and risks become more structural. But investors should ask: How much of this is already priced in? Tensions have been simmering for months, particularly since the U.S. deployed B2 bombers to Iran in mid-2025. As always, the first move is emotional. The second move is analytical. And over time, earnings still matter most.”

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